Who is Behind the Opposition to Immigration Reform?

Policymaking is more an art of deliberation than of preparation. In the political world, a policy only has the chance to work if it has enough support to pass and be implemented. The interests of a voting constituency can be thwarted if opposing groups have enough clout to change the terms of debate. In recent years Latinos have become the newest and most significant voting demographic, and have made their influence clear by making immigration reform a top legislative priority. But their strength hasn’t been enough to pass said reforms. That is because the counter influence of groups opposed to immigration reform is enough to affect policy towards Latinos. NumbersUSA is a prime example of an organization today that is making or preventing policies that affect Latinos. NumbersUSA is the leading group of a coalition formed for the purpose of opposing comprehensive immigration reform, which is any immigration bill which would grant amnesty or a pathway to citizenship to undocumented immigrants. The strength of this coalition in the past two immigration reform efforts in 2006 and 2013 shows the power of a single organization over the fate of the Latino population in politics.

NumbersUSA is a nationwide political advocacy group with an office in Washington D.C. committed to reducing total immigration levels, legal and illegal, into the United States. They are by far the largest and most consequential group opposing increased immigration, claiming a million members in every Congressional district around the country. Their goal is to reduce total immigration legal and illegal without racial quotas, as they claim their opposition to immigration is colorblind. The story of how NumbersUSA formed such a formidable coalition against immigration starts with John Tanton. Tanton is the founder of the modern anti-immigration reform movement and is directly related to founding key groups in the movement like NumbersUSA. Tanton became concerned about immigration levels from a left-wing direction, being a member of the environmentalist group the Sierra Club and a founder of a local chapter of Planned Parenthood. This unusual start against immigration on the left is due to the environmentalists’ concern during the 1970’s about population growth’s strain on environmental stability. He for a time headed the Sierra Club’s Population Committee and became convinced that immigration was a root cause of environmental degradation. However as his concern with immigration grew, he left the environmentalist movement and adopted racialist ideas. Ethnic minorities, particularly Latinos, because they will not assimilate must be kept out of the country altogether. His opposition to immigration switched to worry about a non-White unassimilated majority. In the late 1970s, Tanton laid out a strategy for a multiple organization movement, founding the lobbying group Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) in 1979 and U.S. Inc. which would fund other organizations, like NumbersUSA. NumbersUSA founder Roy Beck met Tanton in the environmentalist movement and joined his journal The Social Contract. Beck founded NumbersUSA in 1996 as an anti-immigration group that wouldn’t have the racial aspects of other groups, and would retain the environmentalist ethos. Tanton’s U.S. Inc. would own NumbersUSA until 2002 when it became independent, and since it has left behind its ties to nativist groups and has become mainstream. 

In the anti-immigration movement originated by John Tanton, NumbersUSA is the activist wing. It is through this role that they wield influence in national politics. Their success is based on grassroots organizing. It is not in money power as The Sunlight Foundation estimates that $1.5 billion has been spent lobbying for immigration reform over the last four years, compared to NumbersUSA’s annual budget of $6.5 million. NumbersUSA influences immigration reform by utilizing information technology with grassroots activism. In 1997 the group discovered the ability to send faxes through the internet. When someone signs up to join NumbersUSA, a fax is automatically sent out with their name to the White House, their Governor, Congressman, and two Senators saying “I oppose the Senate Gang of Eight's amnesty proposal to legalize millions of illegal immigrants in a time of budget deficit crisis and high unemployment.” At first their base was fewer than 20,000 until 2004 when George W. Bush began pushing for immigration reform. By 2007 it was more than 500,000. NumbersUSA’s goal and its underlying success isn’t in getting a majority of the public on its side. Rather it is in micro-targeting actively committed members. In their email surveys they collect data on a member’s civic affiliations and demographic data to aid in future targeting campaigns. These dedicated citizens are the ones who will participate in public demonstrations and attend townhalls. 

NumbersUSA is important to policy making affecting Latinos because immigration is of very high importance to Latinos. Despite only having a single issue as their focus, the relative importance of immigration reform to Latinos gives NumbersUSA an outsized influence for Latino politics in general. For one, Latinos are concerned with immigration as an issue far more than most Americans. 20% of Latinos place immigration as an important issue, compared to 8% of all Americans. For Latinos, immigration is tied for top issue with healthcare and unemployment while it is the fifth most important issues for all Americans. Also immigration itself affects future Latinos being able to become citizens and engage in the political process. The largest consideration of immigration reform from Latino advocacy groups is the adoption of a pathway to citizenship which would give undocumented immigrants legal rights and could lead to an enlarging of the Latino eligible voting population. The 2013 legislation could add more than 17 million new potential voting-age citizens by 2036. Given that modern presidential elections are decided by a few million votes, this would maximize their importance as a voting block. It is precisely this possibility that NumbersUSA engages in political activism. 

The influence of NumbersUSA on immigration policy became manifest with the 2006 effort to reform federal immigration policy. The proposed 2006 reform promised to increase border security to reduce future illegal immigration and offer a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants currently residing in the United States. The effort was bipartisan with support from Republican president George W. Bush and Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy. The bill had enough momentum to pass the Senate 62 to 36, with 23 Republicans and 39 Democrats. However it died in the Republican controlled House of Representatives where it did not come up for a vote. Partially to blame was the division of the bill’s supporters. Labor unions wanted amnesty and opposed a guest worker program, while corporations wanted high skilled immigration and a guest worker program over a pathway to citizenship. This helped NumbersUSA defeat the bill in the House due to an increase in their ranks during the debate. Their base of activists sending faxes and calling Congress increased to 300,000, from 100,000 two years ago, with more than a million receiving email alerts. Their success was in getting their message out to the public using conservative AM talk radio. Hosts like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity with millions of listeners around the country in almost every Congressional district, and certainly Republican districts, told their listeners that immigration reform would lead to what NumbersUSA warned about, and helped increase their ranks. Anti-immigration Congressman Tom Tancredo gave talk radio listeners a political figure to rally behind. He has accepted donations from the John Tanton group Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), having accepted more than $20,000 from FAIR between 1996 and 2006. As a result the bill never came up for a vote in the House. Again in 2007 the new Democratic majority brought up the bill, but it even failed to pass the Senate by 53 to 46 due to organized labor’s opposition. NumbersUSA didn’t have to lift a finger. 

NumbersUSA again flexed its activist muscle in 2013. Immigration reform had a new impetus after the 2012 elections when Barack Obama won re-election as president over Mitt Romney. Romney advocated for immigration restrictions like self-deportation and opposition to the DREAM Act early in the campaign. Obama to court Latinos promised action on immigration reform including a pathway to citizenship. His victory and Romney’s poor showing among Latinos convinced Republicans that they too must support immigration reform to court Latino voters. In the Senate a “gang of eight” of four Republicans and four Democrats convened to draw up the bill. The final bill included like the 2006 bill a pathway to citizenship and increased border security. It passed 68 to 32 on June 27th with all Democrats and 14 Republicans. This number was higher than the previous effort which failed to pass the House, giving proponents hope it would be signed into law. So far, immigration reform seemed to be on track. But efforts stalled in the House of Representatives where Speaker of the House John Boehner has refused to allow it to come up for a vote. This is where NumbersUSA comes in. By 2013 NumbersUSA actually increased its membership, now claiming at least a million active members. They so far have been on the winning side despite an outpouring of activism from undocumented immigrants and their families in front of Congressional Republican offices. Even faced with a growing Latino electorate which has voted less and less for Republican candidates, Republicans in Congress still do not go against NumbersUSA and support comprehensive immigration reform. The bill so far still has a chance of passing since there are likely enough combined Republican and Democratic votes in the House. But even against this fact Republican leadership still has not relented. 

The fate of comprehensive immigration reform is in the hands of a group which doesn’t want it to pass. Immigration reform is a seminal example of how the political interests of Latinos is dependent on the political process. In the political arena opponents are just as important as allies if they have the organizational skills to defeat a bill. NumbersUSA shows where deliberation ends and where activism makes the difference in policy. Superior activism can overcome well funded institutional support. The strength of the opposition is in its unity of purpose. Their goal is to stop a bill from passing, while the goal of proponents of immigration reform varies from a pathway to citizenship, increased border security, increase in high-skilled immigration, family reunification, or a guest worker program. It is a classic David versus Goliath story where the focused resolve of a single organization has the ability to topple a seemingly insurmountable foe.*

*2/4/2017 This research helped me on my way to supporting immigration restriction.